Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2943 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2943 LAX 05:55 → DEN 09:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 2392 LAX 14:55 → DEN 18:15 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2943 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:55	DEN 09:20	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
UA 1010 United Flight history →	LAX 05:00	DEN 08:22	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 703 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DEN 10:29	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 4957 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:42	DEN 11:14	10%	5%	0.6%	94%
F9 3156 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:30	DEN 10:03	11%	5%	0.7%	90%
UA 2829 United Flight history →	LAX 19:45	DEN 23:15	13%	5%	0.5%	92%
UA 1912 United Flight history →	LAX 08:47	DEN 12:13	14%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2061 United Flight history →	LAX 10:55	DEN 14:27	14%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 2610 United Flight history →	LAX 18:45	DEN 22:15	15%	6%	0.5%	91%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:00	DEN 11:28	15%	3%	0.7%	83%
UA 360 United Flight history →	LAX 12:46	DEN 16:16	16%	6%	0.6%	90%
WN 2222 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 08:15	DEN 11:30	18%	3%	0.5%	73%
UA 2146 United Flight history →	LAX 16:10	DEN 19:40	18%	6%	0.5%	79%
AA 4958 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:05	DEN 17:40	19%	9%	0.6%	67%
UA 2758 United Flight history →	LAX 14:30	DEN 18:00	20%	7%	0.6%	73%
DL 1729 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:29	DEN 23:52	22%	6%	0.7%	79%
F9 4946 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 20:49	DEN 00:29	25%	11%	0.7%	77%
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:53	DEN 18:18	27%	6%	0.7%	65%
WN 2391 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 10:00	DEN 13:20	30%	4%	0.5%	58%
WN 278 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 16:20	DEN 19:40	37%	9%	0.5%	37%
WN 2394 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 19:25	DEN 22:45	37%	9%	0.5%	55%
WN 2392 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:55	DEN 18:15	40%	9%	0.5%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON