Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2811 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2811 LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 3212 LAX 18:25 → DFW 23:42 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2811 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	DFW 11:15	8%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 2746 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DFW 12:18	10%	4%	0.9%	87%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	DFW 12:48	11%	5%	0.7%	88%
AA 971 American Flight history →	LAX 00:31	DFW 05:41	15%	6%	0.9%	85%
AA 2317 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	DFW 13:16	17%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 1445 American Flight history →	LAX 01:10	DFW 06:20	17%	6%	0.9%	82%
AA 1186 American Flight history →	LAX 09:02	DFW 14:25	18%	8%	0.9%	67%
DL 420 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:53	DFW 23:59	20%	8%	0.8%	82%
AA 3218 American Flight history →	LAX 10:30	DFW 15:53	21%	9%	0.9%	73%
DL 948 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:50	DFW 19:04	21%	7%	0.7%	86%
AA 2994 American Flight history →	LAX 15:00	DFW 20:21	22%	9%	0.8%	63%
F9 2274 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 09:39	DFW 14:58	22%	9%	1.1%	82%
AA 1230 American Flight history →	LAX 12:15	DFW 17:34	23%	10%	0.8%	71%
AA 1669 American Flight history →	LAX 18:45	DFW 23:53	23%	10%	1.0%	67%
AA 3136 American Flight history →	LAX 23:48	DFW 05:01	25%	7%	1.0%	68%
AA 2732 American Flight history →	LAX 17:45	DFW 23:03	25%	10%	1.1%	48%
AA 2041 American Flight history →	LAX 13:53	DFW 19:14	25%	10%	0.8%	49%
AA 2024 American Flight history →	LAX 16:15	DFW 21:33	26%	10%	0.9%	54%
F9 3212 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 18:25	DFW 23:42	31%	14%	1.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON