tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 08:47, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Des Moines on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4971 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 12:40 DSM 18:20 19% 7% 0.6% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:13 → ORD 06:32UA 729 2h 10m Chicago ORD 08:42 → DSM 10:17UA 1803 8h 04m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 1h 28m Denver DEN 09:50 → DSM 12:47UA 5211 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:11 → DSM 09:11AA 3495 · flown by Envoy 6h 40m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 1h 32m Chicago ORD 12:59 → DSM 14:27UA 1781 7h 17m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 7h 44m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 3h 01m Denver DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311 7h 15m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 9h 52m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 11:54 → IAH 17:22UA 2086 2h 50m Houston IAH 20:12 → DSM 22:35UA 1780 8h 41m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1988 49m Charlotte CLT 22:44 → DSM 00:09 +1AA 2241 8h 11m 69% 48%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 14:55 → DEN 18:15WN 2392 1h 20m Denver DEN 19:35 → DSM 22:25WN 2940 5h 30m 73% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON