Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2395 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2395 LAX 07:35 → ELP 10:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 2396 LAX 21:45 → ELP 00:45 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2395 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 07:35	ELP 10:30	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 4977 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:26	ELP 11:34	14%	5%	0.6%	93%
AA 4905 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:05	ELP 23:09	22%	10%	0.7%	78%
WN 2396 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:45	ELP 00:45	36%	11%	0.6%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON