Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3323 at 18:24, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3323 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:24	EUG 20:42	17%	6%	0.6%	96%worse than usual
AS 2324 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAX 10:05	EUG 12:18	8%	4%	0.0%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → EUG 11:48DL 4135 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	2h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	98%	90%
Alaska Details →	LAX 16:25 → SEA 19:11AS 1375	3h 38m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	7h 34m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	2h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 07m	96%	86%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 38m Portland	PDX 10:59 → EUG 11:57AS 3063 · flown by SkyWest	4h 57m	97%	86%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	2h 53m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	7h 57m	100%	82%
American Details →	LAX 06:34 → PHX 08:05AA 2027	2h 16m Phoenix	PHX 10:21 → EUG 13:06AA 4114 · flown by Envoy	6h 32m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:45 → SEA 12:30DL 1714	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 15:44 → EUG 17:05DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	7h 20m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355	46m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m	66%	57%
Alaska Details →	LAX 13:59 → SEA 16:45AS 585	55m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → EUG 18:58AS 3199 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	65%	50%
Alaska Details →	LAX 19:09 → SEA 21:58AS 1368	51m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	4h 50m	47%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON