Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5299 LAX 10:10 → FAT 11:31 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 374 LAX 18:45 → FAT 19:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5299 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:10	FAT 11:31	16%	11%	0.6%	89%
UA 5329 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:31	FAT 22:44	21%	11%	0.6%	73%
UA 374 United Flight history →	LAX 18:45	FAT 19:54	22%	9%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON