Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5728 at 08:28, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5728 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:28	FCA 12:27	15%	5%	0.5%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kalispell on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kalispell is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → FCA 12:43DL 3804 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	98%	90%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 45m Portland	PDX 11:06 → FCA 13:30AS 2044 · flown by Horizon	5h 30m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → FCA 17:29DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	97%	87%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	2h 53m Denver	DEN 11:15 → FCA 13:30UA 1547	7h 30m	100%	84%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	3h 24m Denver	DEN 13:53 → FCA 16:11UA 2246	8h 11m	99%	81%
American Details →	LAX 06:34 → PHX 08:05AA 2027	1h 39m Phoenix	PHX 09:44 → FCA 13:49AA 3852 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	93%	81%
American Details →	LAX 01:10 → DFW 06:20AA 1445	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:10 → FCA 11:43AA 1845	9h 33m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748	3h 44m Seattle	SEA 13:33 → FCA 15:54AS 2105 · flown by Horizon	7h 54m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198	46m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → FCA 23:43DL 1602	7h 21m	70%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON