Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1700 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day B6 1700 LAX 08:45 → FLL 17:08 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 100 LAX 12:05 → FLL 20:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 08:45	FLL 17:08	25%	9%	1.1%	75%
DL 477 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:59	FLL 07:05	26%	7%	1.9%	73%
B6 700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 23:35	FLL 07:56	32%	13%	1.8%	81%worse than usual
B6 1200 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	FLL 22:20	32%	15%	1.9%	87%worse than usual
B6 1400 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:40	FLL 05:02	33%	16%	2.6%	78%worse than usual
B6 100 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:05	FLL 20:25	36%	15%	1.2%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 23m Houston	IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22UA 2261	7h 31m	97%	84%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	54m Houston	IAH 12:06 → FLL 15:53UA 1706	7h 08m	93%	74%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:00 → FLL 10:53AA 1866	7h 22m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON