Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1798 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1798 LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:53 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 377 LAX 18:40 → HNL 21:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1798 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	HNL 09:53	13%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
DL 480 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:30	HNL 11:18	16%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1224 United Flight history →	LAX 11:05	HNL 13:56	18%	6%	0.6%	84%
AS 801 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	HNL 09:54	19%	4%	1.0%	83%
AA 143 American Flight history →	LAX 15:55	HNL 18:41	19%	7%	0.6%	80%
UA 2390 United Flight history →	LAX 18:45	HNL 21:38	19%	7%	0.6%	84%
AA 31 American Flight history →	LAX 08:03	HNL 10:53	19%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 1158 United Flight history →	LAX 09:05	HNL 11:53	19%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 1170 United Flight history →	LAX 17:05	HNL 19:44	19%	7%	0.6%	82%
UA 1431 United Flight history →	LAX 13:15	HNL 15:59	20%	7%	0.6%	85%
DL 443 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:37	HNL 21:22	21%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 465 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:55	HNL 16:43	21%	6%	0.6%	76%
AA 297 American Flight history →	LAX 17:54	HNL 20:41	23%	8%	0.6%	74%
WN 2397 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 09:00	HNL 11:45	24%	4%	0.6%	70%
AA 1313 American Flight history →	LAX 19:25	HNL 22:09	27%	8%	0.6%	54%
AS 809 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:00	HNL 20:53	27%	10%	0.9%	74%
AS 768 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:29	HNL 11:27	28%	5%	1.1%	77%
AS 854 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 20:47	HNL 23:34	35%	11%	0.9%	37%
AS 803 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:05	HNL 12:58	37%	7%	1.2%	54%
WN 377 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 18:40	HNL 21:25	38%	10%	0.5%	40%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:36AS 825	1h 50m Kailua/Kona	KOA 13:26 → HNL 14:15AS 1077	8h 15m	99%	71%
Southwest Details →	LAX 09:00 → OAK 10:20WN 3014	1h 05m Oakland	OAK 11:25 → HNL 13:45WN 2879	7h 45m	90%	70%
United Details →	LAX 10:55 → SFO 12:30UA 1791	1h 25m San Francisco	SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300	8h 23m	88%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON