Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2399 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2399 LAX 05:10 → HOU 10:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4858 LAX 18:50 → HOU 00:10 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2399 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:10	HOU 10:30	5%	1%	1.3%	88%
WN 2402 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 23:40	HOU 05:00	29%	8%	0.6%	67%
WN 3225 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:10	HOU 19:35	34%	10%	0.7%	24%
WN 4858 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 18:50	HOU 00:10	37%	10%	0.7%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON