Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 861 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 861 LAX 09:05 → IND 16:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 635 LAX 16:54 → IND 23:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 861 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:05	IND 16:10	15%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 1899 American Flight history →	LAX 10:37	IND 17:50	23%	6%	0.6%	74%
AA 635 American Flight history →	LAX 16:54	IND 23:59	25%	9%	0.6%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 05:20 → LAS 06:35WN 2403	50m Las Vegas	LAS 07:25 → IND 14:05WN 2246	5h 45m	92%	81%
Southwest Details →	LAX 07:10 → MCI 12:20WN 4892	1h 10m Kansas City	MCI 13:30 → IND 16:00WN 1432	5h 50m	93%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON