Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 31 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 118 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 118 LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 1224 LAX 23:59 → JFK 08:36 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 118 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:37	8%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 934 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:33	8%	3%	0.8%	89%
B6 124 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:29	8%	3%	1.1%	93%
AA 2 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	9%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 979 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	9%	3%	0.8%	90%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 07:30	JFK 15:59	13%	5%	1.1%	80%
AA 10 American Flight history →	LAX 21:27	JFK 06:03	15%	5%	0.9%	85%
AA 307 American Flight history →	LAX 08:30	JFK 17:09	15%	5%	0.8%	76%
DL 958 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:10	JFK 17:00	16%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 938 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:10	JFK 23:40	18%	7%	0.8%	79%
AA 28 American Flight history →	LAX 15:15	JFK 23:54	18%	7%	0.8%	79%
DL 960 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:00	JFK 05:16	19%	6%	0.8%	86%
AA 30 American Flight history →	LAX 22:23	JFK 07:00	19%	6%	1.1%	70%
AA 32 American Flight history →	LAX 11:05	JFK 19:46	19%	9%	0.8%	74%
AA 238 American Flight history →	LAX 10:11	JFK 18:52	19%	8%	0.9%	71%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 15:20	JFK 23:57	20%	8%	1.1%	81%
B6 824 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 16:20	JFK 00:56	20%	10%	1.1%	83%
AA 4 American Flight history →	LAX 13:00	JFK 21:34	20%	9%	0.8%	76%
DL 951 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:50	JFK 18:35	20%	6%	0.8%	74%
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 11:35	JFK 20:11	21%	8%	1.1%	77%
DL 972 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:15	JFK 20:02	21%	8%	0.8%	67%
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:35	JFK 21:09	21%	9%	1.1%	82%
AA 274 American Flight history →	LAX 11:55	JFK 20:36	21%	9%	0.8%	60%
DL 676 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:45	JFK 07:03	21%	5%	0.8%	81%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 09:49	JFK 18:25	21%	7%	1.1%	80%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 14:30	JFK 23:10	22%	8%	1.1%	71%
DL 915 Delta Flight history →	LAX 23:55	JFK 08:16	22%	5%	0.8%	86%
DL 939 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:15	JFK 21:53	22%	8%	0.8%	73%
B6 1524 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:30	JFK 05:01	23%	9%	1.2%	83%
B6 1024 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 22:25	JFK 07:00	26%	9%	1.2%	82%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 23:59	JFK 08:36	30%	10%	1.2%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	1h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 45m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	48m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 09m	84%	78%
American Details →	LAX 06:34 → PHX 08:05AA 2027	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 09:15 → JFK 17:28AA 2689	7h 54m	93%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON