Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2373 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 2373 LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 59 LAX 13:30 → KOA 16:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2373 United Flight history →	LAX 09:00	KOA 11:42	9%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 1718 United Flight history →	LAX 17:10	KOA 19:47	15%	6%	0.6%	90%
AS 825 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 09:00	KOA 11:36	15%	4%	1.1%	75%
DL 311 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:44	KOA 19:17	17%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 59 American Flight history →	LAX 13:30	KOA 16:10	22%	6%	0.6%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 09:00 → HNL 11:45WN 2397	1h 30m Honolulu	HNL 13:15 → KOA 14:10WN 561	8h 10m	91%	77%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:11AS 933	1h 49m Kahului	OGG 13:00 → KOA 13:36AS 1030	8h 06m	97%	73%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 34m Honolulu	HNL 11:28 → KOA 12:16AS 1078	8h 16m	95%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON