Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2403 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 2403 LAX 05:20 → LAS 06:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 287 LAX 20:20 → LAS 21:35 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2403 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:20	LAS 06:35	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 2253 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	LAS 08:27	10%	4%	0.6%	95%
F9 1184 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:30	LAS 07:51	11%	6%	0.9%	78%
UA 1006 United Flight history →	LAX 08:20	LAS 09:42	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 6425 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:10	LAS 09:33	13%	6%	0.8%	97%worse than usual
WN 2007 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 09:35	LAS 10:45	20%	4%	0.6%	48%
UA 2741 United Flight history →	LAX 13:12	LAS 14:34	21%	9%	0.6%	83%
UA 1267 United	LAX 15:05	LAS 16:26	21%	11%	0.6%	no record
UA 2315 United	LAX 22:59	LAS 00:21	24%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 679 United Flight history →	LAX 19:07	LAS 20:29	25%	11%	0.6%	81%
DL 1696 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	LAS 12:12	26%	6%	0.6%	77%
DL 2120 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:32	LAS 16:41	26%	10%	0.7%	69%
AA 6190 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:04	LAS 17:24	27%	13%	0.8%	72%
F9 3292 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 12:07	LAS 13:29	28%	13%	0.9%	80%
DL 2653 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:25	LAS 22:45	28%	11%	0.7%	79%
AA 2039 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	LAS 13:45	32%	12%	0.7%	66%
WN 991 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 11:10	LAS 12:25	33%	7%	0.6%	32%
F9 2334 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 21:09	LAS 22:32	33%	18%	1.0%	43%
DL 2202 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:55	LAS 21:04	34%	12%	0.7%	74%
WN 1329 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 22:30	LAS 23:55	36%	14%	0.6%	58%
AA 2785 American Flight history →	LAX 20:15	LAS 21:33	36%	15%	0.8%	72%
WN 1571 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:00	LAS 18:15	41%	15%	0.6%	34%
WN 2404 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 18:20	LAS 19:35	43%	16%	0.6%	50%
WN 287 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 20:20	LAS 21:35	45%	16%	0.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON