tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084 3h 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 10h 15m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 1h 27m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 53m Houston IAH 08:05 → LGA 12:40UA 2133 8h 49m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → LGA 13:00AA 1056 9h 29m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:13 → ORD 06:32UA 729 3h 31m Chicago ORD 10:03 → LGA 13:26UA 669 10h 13m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 9h 25m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 34m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:40 → ORD 07:06AA 2919 3h 54m Chicago ORD 11:00 → LGA 14:19AA 2059 10h 39m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 46m Chicago ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821 7h 22m 71% 50%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 51m Detroit DTW 17:59 → LGA 19:50DL 2604 7h 05m 69% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON