Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1295 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1295 LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 963 LAX 09:00 → LIH 11:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1295 United Flight history →	LAX 08:45	LIH 11:44	13%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1104 United Flight history →	LAX 17:15	LIH 20:14	16%	5%	0.6%	92%
DL 428 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:45	LIH 17:41	19%	6%	0.8%	83%
AA 119 American Flight history →	LAX 08:48	LIH 11:47	21%	5%	0.6%	80%
AA 510 American Flight history →	LAX 17:50	LIH 20:48	24%	8%	0.6%	72%
AS 963 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 09:00	LIH 11:51	25%	4%	1.0%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 09:00 → HNL 11:45WN 2397	1h 40m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LIH 14:15WN 1923	8h 15m	94%	77%
United Details →	LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372	1h 30m San Francisco	SFO 10:36 → LIH 13:16UA 1298	8h 46m	91%	72%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 32m Honolulu	HNL 11:26 → LIH 12:09AS 1063	8h 09m	95%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON