Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4892 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4892 LAX 07:10 → MCI 12:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 2567 LAX 14:30 → MCI 19:40 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4892 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 07:10	MCI 12:20	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 5426 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:10	MCI 15:45	13%	5%	0.6%	92%
DL 1517 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:35	MCI 14:50	17%	3%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
DL 2243 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:25	MCI 23:41	24%	7%	0.6%	85%
WN 2408 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 20:25	MCI 01:40	34%	11%	0.6%	39%
WN 2567 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:30	MCI 19:40	35%	10%	0.5%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON