Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via DFW, leaving 01:10, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1080 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:14	MEM 23:59	22%	9%	0.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	8h 58m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	3h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	9h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	3h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	9h 37m	100%	86%
United Details →	LAX 00:13 → ORD 06:32UA 729	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest	8h 52m	99%	86%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	2h 43m Denver	DEN 11:05 → MEM 14:26UA 1112	7h 26m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:55 → DEN 09:20WN 2943	1h 10m Denver	DEN 10:30 → MEM 13:55WN 4698	6h 00m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399	3h 04m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → MEM 17:02DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	9h 32m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515	8h 25m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802	51m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	7h 11m	71%	58%
Southwest Details →	LAX 14:10 → HOU 19:35WN 3225	1h 00m Houston	HOU 20:35 → MEM 22:15WN 4745	6h 05m	66%	48%
Southwest Details →	LAX 14:55 → DEN 18:15WN 2392	50m Denver	DEN 19:05 → MEM 22:30WN 2225	5h 35m	52%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON