Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3321 at 19:57, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3321 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:57	MFR 22:02	13%	4%	0.7%	88%
AS 2328 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAX 13:15	MFR 15:14	6%	2%	0.0%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	98%	90%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 19m Portland	PDX 10:40 → MFR 11:53AS 3300 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	96%	85%
Alaska Details →	LAX 16:25 → SEA 19:11AS 1375	3h 29m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	7h 39m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:45 → SEA 12:30DL 1714	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 15:10 → MFR 16:44DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	98%	81%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	2h 58m Denver	DEN 11:20 → MFR 13:05UA 337	8h 05m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305	2h 14m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	6h 26m	96%	80%
American Details →	LAX 06:34 → PHX 08:05AA 2027	2h 06m Phoenix	PHX 10:11 → MFR 12:50AA 6253 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	95%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 19:15 → SLC 22:04DL 1483	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	4h 39m	75%	69%
Alaska Details →	LAX 13:59 → SEA 16:45AS 585	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	5h 14m	72%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON