Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 315 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 315 LAX 06:30 → MIA 14:49 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3124 LAX 12:25 → MIA 20:45 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 315 American Flight history →	LAX 06:30	MIA 14:49	17%	5%	2.4%	90%
AA 1221 American Flight history →	LAX 22:00	MIA 06:14	21%	7%	1.0%	82%
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	21%	7%	1.3%	87%
AA 2942 American Flight history →	LAX 20:52	MIA 05:01	21%	8%	0.9%	74%
AA 2289 American Flight history →	LAX 23:04	MIA 07:18	22%	7%	0.9%	70%
AA 2577 American	LAX 23:59	MIA 08:20	23%	7%	1.1%	no record
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	29%	8%	1.2%	77%
AA 3016 American Flight history →	LAX 10:40	MIA 19:00	34%	11%	1.1%	68%
AA 3013 American Flight history →	LAX 13:49	MIA 21:57	34%	12%	1.0%	68%
AA 3124 American Flight history →	LAX 12:25	MIA 20:45	34%	11%	1.1%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 13m Houston	IAH 07:25 → MIA 11:12UA 1966	7h 21m	96%	82%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	7h 40m	95%	74%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:00 → DAL 10:05WN 4128	1h 25m Dallas	DAL 11:30 → MIA 15:20WN 1361	7h 20m	97%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON