tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5241 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 10:21 MRY 11:42 18% 7% 0.6% 90%
UA 1363 United Flight history → LAX 19:22 MRY 20:36 19% 8% 0.6% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:34 → PHX 08:05AA 2027 1h 59m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → MRY 12:05AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 5h 31m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:00 → PHX 11:28AA 1668 2h 15m Phoenix PHX 13:43 → MRY 15:38AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032 2h 27m Phoenix PHX 20:37 → MRY 22:33AA 6374 · flown by SkyWest 5h 54m 93% 69%
UnitedDetails → LAX 09:10 → SFO 10:45UA 520 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → MRY 14:55UA 5738 · flown by SkyWest 5h 45m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 46m Denver DEN 11:15 → MRY 13:10UA 5438 · flown by SkyWest 6h 10m 85% 69%
UnitedDetails → LAX 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 2647 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → MRY 11:10UA 5479 · flown by SkyWest 5h 10m 99% 67%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758 1h 30m Denver DEN 19:30 → MRY 21:10UA 1371 6h 40m 89% 64%
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:10 → PHX 14:40AA 1994 1h 56m Phoenix PHX 16:36 → MRY 18:28AA 2884 5h 18m 83% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372 59m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → MRY 11:10UA 5479 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m 71% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON