tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6270 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 12:30 MSO 16:11 25% 9% 0.5% 76%
UA 5370 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 20:20 MSO 23:56 27% 8% 0.5% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 6h 00m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434 3h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:15 → MSO 13:19UA 1342 7h 19m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → MSO 00:28 +1DL 1723 6h 23m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 3h 31m Denver DEN 14:00 → MSO 16:20UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 20m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 53m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362 7h 23m 90% 77%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 13:59 → SEA 16:45AS 585 3h 45m Seattle SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon 7h 56m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092 7h 53m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:53 → DFW 19:14AA 2041 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:06 → MSO 22:40AA 4063 · flown by Envoy 7h 47m 71% 58%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355 46m Portland PDX 14:30 → MSO 17:01AS 3097 · flown by SkyWest 4h 38m 66% 54%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798 50m Seattle SEA 13:38 → MSO 16:09AS 697 5h 09m 59% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON