Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 792 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 792 LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2180 LAX 18:50 → MSP 00:20 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 792 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:15	MSP 11:52	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2084 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:30	MSP 06:07	11%	3%	0.6%	64%
DL 799 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:05	MSP 13:42	12%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 413 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:15	MSP 16:50	14%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 2198 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:22	MSP 20:59	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 914 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:35	MSP 18:11	16%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 2180 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:50	MSP 00:20	18%	5%	0.6%	87%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 05:55 → DEN 09:20WN 2943	50m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MSP 13:10WN 3973	5h 15m	87%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON