tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1112 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1112 LAX 06:20 → MSY 12:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4311 LAX 12:10 → MSY 18:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 1112 Delta Flight history → LAX 06:20 MSY 12:13 7% 2% 0.7% 90%
DL 2096 Delta Flight history → LAX 10:20 MSY 16:10 22% 5% 0.7% 75%
DL 2154 Delta Flight history → LAX 18:00 MSY 23:46 25% 9% 6.0% 73%
WN 4311 Southwest Flight history → LAX 12:10 MSY 18:00 33% 9% 0.8% 77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:35 → AUS 12:38DL 946 48m Austin AUS 13:26 → MSY 15:11DL 4016 · flown by SkyWest 5h 36m 80% 64%
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:00 → PHX 11:28AA 1668 1h 02m Phoenix PHX 12:30 → MSY 17:34AA 2191 5h 34m 80% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON