Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2415 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2415 LAX 06:00 → OAK 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2418 LAX 17:45 → OAK 19:05 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2415 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 06:00	OAK 07:30	3%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 3014 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 09:00	OAK 10:20	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 4893 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 11:55	OAK 13:15	20%	5%	0.6%	81%
WN 2417 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 15:30	OAK 16:50	28%	7%	0.6%	64%
WN 4554 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:05	OAK 22:30	35%	11%	0.5%	53%
WN 2418 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:45	OAK 19:05	36%	8%	0.5%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON