Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 417 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 417 LAX 09:00 → OGG 11:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 844 LAX 10:00 → OGG 12:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 417 United Flight history →	LAX 09:00	OGG 11:46	15%	5%	0.6%	93%
UA 765 United Flight history →	LAX 10:57	OGG 13:43	15%	5%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
UA 2221 United Flight history →	LAX 17:05	OGG 19:48	15%	6%	0.7%	83%
DL 425 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:30	OGG 11:07	15%	4%	0.7%	86%
AA 271 American Flight history →	LAX 09:04	OGG 11:44	16%	7%	0.7%	83%
DL 418 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:55	OGG 19:34	17%	7%	0.8%	85%
AS 933 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:30	OGG 11:11	23%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 205 American Flight history →	LAX 18:45	OGG 21:24	24%	9%	0.7%	77%
AS 844 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:00	OGG 12:34	33%	7%	1.2%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 06:20 → SMF 07:45WN 4894	1h 15m Sacramento	SMF 09:00 → OGG 11:20WN 479	8h 00m	100%	89%
Alaska Details →	LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:36AS 825	1h 15m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149	7h 28m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 30m Honolulu	HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086	8h 07m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON