tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:39, is the safest bet: 39% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6272 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 08:38 OKC 13:42 13% 5% 0.6% 92%
AA 4898 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 17:22 OKC 22:26 16% 7% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → OKC 17:03DL 3882 · flown by SkyWest 7h 48m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 1h 43m Denver DEN 10:05 → OKC 13:01UA 5324 · flown by SkyWest 6h 01m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → OKC 10:37AA 3805 · flown by Envoy 8h 06m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 05:20 → LAS 06:35WN 2403 1h 15m Las Vegas LAS 07:50 → OKC 12:20WN 344 5h 00m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416 2h 55m Houston IAH 16:35 → OKC 18:15UA 6334 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 13m Houston IAH 07:25 → OKC 08:57UA 6178 · flown by Mesa 6h 06m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 30m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 05:55 → DEN 09:20WN 2943 1h 20m Denver DEN 10:40 → OKC 13:15WN 1652 5h 20m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 15:20 → IAH 20:49UA 2377 46m Houston IAH 21:35 → OKC 23:08UA 5281 · flown by SkyWest 5h 48m 73% 61%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 16:55 → PHX 18:25WN 193 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 19:35 → OKC 23:50WN 4087 4h 55m 66% 41%
AmericanDetails → LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032 46m Phoenix PHX 18:56 → OKC 23:15AA 6320 · flown by SkyWest 4h 36m 54% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON