Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Omaha on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6278 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:49	OMA 15:13	12%	5%	0.5%	93%
AA 6224 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:32	OMA 23:57	14%	7%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	7h 42m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → OMA 16:51DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	5h 21m	96%	89%
United Details →	LAX 00:13 → ORD 06:32UA 729	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778	8h 14m	98%	88%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 47m Denver	DEN 10:09 → OMA 12:42UA 361	5h 42m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 12:35 → MSP 18:11DL 914	3h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest	8h 13m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:20 → LAS 06:35WN 2403	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 07:45 → OMA 12:25WN 2294	5h 05m	98%	87%
American Details →	LAX 00:40 → ORD 07:06AA 2919	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → OMA 11:18AA 3739 · flown by Envoy	8h 38m	96%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487	50m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → OMA 23:14UA 1625	6h 48m	65%	54%
American Details →	LAX 13:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1988	46m Charlotte	CLT 22:41 → OMA 00:19 +1AA 961	8h 21m	66%	51%
Southwest Details →	LAX 14:55 → DEN 18:15WN 2392	1h 05m Denver	DEN 19:20 → OMA 21:55WN 1659	5h 00m	63%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON