Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 580 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 580 LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 2446 LAX 23:59 → ORD 06:17 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 580 United Flight history →	LAX 05:10	ORD 11:27	5%	2%	0.6%	98%
AA 383 American Flight history →	LAX 06:05	ORD 12:32	7%	4%	0.9%	91%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ORD 13:14	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 729 United Flight history →	LAX 00:13	ORD 06:32	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	ORD 14:35	11%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 1754 United Flight history →	LAX 18:58	ORD 01:15	11%	5%	0.6%	83%
AA 2919 American Flight history →	LAX 00:40	ORD 07:06	12%	5%	0.9%	87%
UA 212 United Flight history →	LAX 17:00	ORD 23:16	13%	6%	0.6%	87%
UA 353 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	ORD 04:51	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 1598 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	ORD 14:27	14%	6%	0.8%	90%
UA 1962 United Flight history →	LAX 23:30	ORD 05:46	14%	5%	0.6%	88%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:40	ORD 13:46	14%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 2113 United Flight history →	LAX 10:45	ORD 17:04	18%	6%	0.6%	78%
AA 2608 American Flight history →	LAX 09:30	ORD 15:59	18%	9%	0.8%	76%
AA 2718 American Flight history →	LAX 16:25	ORD 23:00	20%	10%	0.9%	66%
AA 1433 American Flight history →	LAX 17:50	ORD 00:07	21%	9%	0.8%	62%
DL 1634 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:15	ORD 23:18	21%	9%	0.6%	67%
UA 457 United Flight history →	LAX 12:50	ORD 19:05	21%	7%	0.6%	69%
AA 1009 American Flight history →	LAX 22:36	ORD 05:00	21%	8%	0.9%	76%
UA 2487 United Flight history →	LAX 14:26	ORD 20:40	23%	7%	0.6%	69%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:24	ORD 17:35	23%	8%	0.6%	66%
AA 1628 American Flight history →	LAX 10:21	ORD 16:50	23%	9%	0.8%	52%
AA 1050 American Flight history →	LAX 11:40	ORD 18:12	26%	10%	0.8%	61%
AA 3134 American Flight history →	LAX 13:16	ORD 19:59	26%	10%	0.8%	58%
F9 2446 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 23:59	ORD 06:17	37%	16%	4.2%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	53m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ORD 08:30DL 1544	6h 00m	86%	77%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	46m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	5h 55m	85%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON