Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2975 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2975 LAX 07:05 → PDX 09:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2457 LAX 20:00 → PDX 22:13 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:05	PDX 09:23	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
AS 668 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	PDX 09:21	9%	2%	0.7%	95%
AS 1315 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 14:27	PDX 16:47	16%	4%	0.7%	92%
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:00	PDX 12:20	16%	4%	0.6%	89%
AS 1355 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:23	PDX 13:44	17%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:19	PDX 16:34	19%	5%	0.6%	86%
AS 1397 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:27	PDX 20:48	19%	5%	0.7%	89%
F9 4499 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 09:15	PDX 11:35	19%	6%	1.1%	95%worse than usual
AS 207 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 21:35	PDX 23:56	19%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 6424 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:10	PDX 22:39	22%	9%	0.6%	69%
DL 2459 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:01	PDX 19:17	24%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 2457 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:00	PDX 22:13	26%	6%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON