Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1451 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1451 LAX 06:05 → PHL 14:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3319 LAX 12:18 → PHL 20:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1451 American Flight history →	LAX 06:05	PHL 14:21	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 1151 American Flight history →	LAX 07:02	PHL 15:24	13%	4%	0.7%	86%
AA 1528 American Flight history →	LAX 08:05	PHL 16:28	19%	5%	0.7%	88%
AA 2758 American Flight history →	LAX 23:42	PHL 07:57	19%	4%	0.7%	86%
AA 513 American Flight history →	LAX 15:20	PHL 23:39	22%	8%	0.8%	67%
AA 3276 American Flight history →	LAX 22:46	PHL 07:00	23%	5%	0.8%	63%
AA 3164 American Flight history →	LAX 10:16	PHL 18:41	25%	7%	0.7%	75%
AA 3319 American Flight history →	LAX 12:18	PHL 20:40	26%	9%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 12m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 14m	91%	85%
United Details →	LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610	1h 44m Denver	DEN 23:59 → PHL 05:31 +1UA 1214	7h 46m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON