Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 116 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 116 LAX 05:05 → PHX 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4229 LAX 19:35 → PHX 21:00 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 116 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:05	PHX 06:30	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
AA 2027 American Flight history →	LAX 06:34	PHX 08:05	9%	4%	0.6%	94%
UA 659 United Flight history →	LAX 08:37	PHX 10:06	14%	3%	0.6%	94%
WN 2419 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 08:55	PHX 10:25	15%	3%	0.6%	64%
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:01	PHX 11:34	16%	8%	0.6%	86%
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:21	PHX 09:56	16%	6%	0.6%	85%
UA 5457 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:22	PHX 17:59	16%	8%	0.6%	99%worse than usual
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:46	PHX 15:21	16%	8%	0.6%	88%
UA 5548 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:05	PHX 14:42	17%	8%	0.6%	89%
DL 3827 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:35	PHX 00:06	18%	8%	0.8%	89%
DL 4077 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:41	PHX 19:14	18%	8%	0.6%	88%
UA 5458 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:22	PHX 22:59	18%	9%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
AA 1668 American Flight history →	LAX 10:00	PHX 11:28	20%	6%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
WN 2421 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 10:50	PHX 12:15	32%	5%	0.6%	68%
AA 1362 American Flight history →	LAX 19:32	PHX 21:02	32%	13%	0.7%	68%
F9 1062 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 13:56	PHX 15:31	33%	14%	1.2%	78%worse than usual
AA 1994 American Flight history →	LAX 13:10	PHX 14:40	33%	10%	0.6%	65%
AA 2032 American Flight history →	LAX 16:39	PHX 18:10	36%	12%	0.7%	65%
WN 1672 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 22:25	PHX 23:55	38%	12%	0.7%	62%
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 16:55	PHX 18:25	41%	11%	0.6%	31%
WN 4229 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 19:35	PHX 21:00	42%	14%	0.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON