Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2039 United Flight history →	LAX 09:00	PIT 16:51	12%	5%	0.6%	92%
AA 2301 American Flight history →	LAX 09:27	PIT 17:28	17%	8%	0.6%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667	3h 42m Dulles	IAD 22:30 → PIT 23:36UA 3540 · flown by Republic	9h 57m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845	7h 03m	95%	88%
American Details →	LAX 00:40 → ORD 07:06AA 2919	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → PIT 12:31AA 4484 · flown by Republic	8h 51m	96%	88%
United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 23m Houston	IAH 07:35 → PIT 11:25UA 2607	7h 34m	97%	88%
United Details →	LAX 06:00 → IAD 14:08UA 2081	3h 22m Dulles	IAD 17:30 → PIT 18:40UA 3579 · flown by Republic	9h 40m	100%	87%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 43m Denver	DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308	7h 16m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:10 → MDW 11:10WN 4398	2h 25m Chicago	MDW 13:35 → PIT 16:00WN 2866	7h 50m	100%	86%
United Details →	LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic	7h 13m	96%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	LAX 12:35 → JFK 21:09B6 224	46m New York	JFK 21:55 → PIT 23:46B6 1195	8h 11m	65%	45%
Alaska Details →	LAX 06:00 → SEA 08:47AS 1365	47m Seattle	SEA 09:34 → PIT 17:12AS 412	8h 12m	58%	45%
Southwest Details →	LAX 13:35 → BWI 21:35WN 2384	50m Baltimore	BWI 22:25 → PIT 23:35WN 4164	7h 00m	53%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON