tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3303 at 19:45, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3303 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 19:45 PSC 22:17 17% 8% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 3h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 12:24 → PSC 13:09DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest 6h 43m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 2647 1h 40m San Francisco SFO 09:15 → PSC 11:27UA 4717 · flown by SkyWest 5h 27m 99% 87%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:25 → SEA 19:11AS 1375 3h 33m Seattle SEA 22:44 → PSC 23:43AS 2403 · flown by Horizon 7h 18m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:15 → PSC 12:54UA 5298 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 3h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → PSC 23:54DL 1712 6h 49m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798 3h 40m Seattle SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon 7h 27m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032 2h 24m Phoenix PHX 20:34 → PSC 23:19AA 6292 · flown by SkyWest 6h 40m 93% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355 47m Portland PDX 14:31 → PSC 15:22AS 2475 · flown by Horizon 3h 59m 68% 56%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305 55m Seattle SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon 4h 40m 63% 51%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 19:09 → SEA 21:58AS 1368 46m Seattle SEA 22:44 → PSC 23:43AS 2403 · flown by Horizon 4h 34m 33% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON