tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5461 at 21:26, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5461 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 21:26 PSP 22:30 20% 7% 0.6% 97%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 38m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:15 → PSP 12:28UA 1294 7h 28m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:55 → SFO 12:30UA 1791 3h 26m San Francisco SFO 15:56 → PSP 17:46UA 5354 · flown by SkyWest 6h 51m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAX 13:25 → SFO 14:53UA 372 3h 45m San Francisco SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest 7h 01m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:34 → PHX 08:05AA 2027 2h 35m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → PSP 11:50AA 2330 5h 16m 95% 74%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 16:25 → SFO 17:47AS 1610 2h 32m San Francisco SFO 20:19 → PSP 21:57AS 3356 · flown by SkyWest 5h 32m 98% 71%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 08:20 → SFO 09:45AS 687 3h 46m San Francisco SFO 13:31 → PSP 15:11AS 3081 · flown by SkyWest 6h 51m 100% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 47m Salt Lake City SLC 20:45 → PSP 21:34DL 4045 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 72% 66%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315 49m Portland PDX 17:36 → PSP 20:14AS 3022 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 65% 52%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 16:20 → DEN 19:40WN 278 1h 15m Denver DEN 20:55 → PSP 22:15WN 3830 5h 55m 68% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON