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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2396 LAX 08:47 → RDU 16:46 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time Riskiest AA 1852 LAX 22:25 → RDU 06:26 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 2396 American Flight history → LAX 08:47 RDU 16:46 24% 6% 0.6% 52%
DL 508 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:35 RDU 17:30 24% 4% 0.6% 84%
AA 1852 American Flight history → LAX 22:25 RDU 06:26 28% 7% 0.7% 76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 1h 27m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 7h 16m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 51m Houston IAH 12:03 → RDU 15:55UA 2196 7h 10m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 95% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON