Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 594 LAX 22:56 → SAN 23:54 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 3716 LAX 08:50 → SAN 09:52 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 594 United Flight history →	LAX 22:56	SAN 23:54	20%	7%	0.6%	80%
DL 3746 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:45	SAN 23:42	20%	6%	0.8%	87%
UA 4643 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:00	SAN 10:08	22%	9%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
DL 4001 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:11	SAN 15:08	23%	8%	0.8%	82%
UA 5415 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:50	SAN 19:51	24%	8%	0.9%	86%
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:20	SAN 19:17	25%	8%	0.8%	84%
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:50	SAN 09:52	28%	11%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON