Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6307 at 09:26 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 6307 LAX 09:26 → SAT 14:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3511 LAX 14:35 → SAT 19:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6307 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:26	SAT 14:34	15%	6%	0.5%	93%
AA 4962 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:22	SAT 23:29	17%	6%	0.6%	84%
DL 2568 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SAT 14:53	17%	5%	0.5%	89%
DL 2686 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:59	SAT 23:54	21%	8%	0.5%	82%
WN 3511 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:35	SAT 19:25	36%	9%	0.5%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON