Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5460 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:15	SBA 09:17	15%	6%	1.0%	96%worse than usual
UA 4796 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:44	SBA 23:44	17%	5%	1.1%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	96%	87%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 26m Portland	PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon	6h 05m	96%	87%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:20 → LAS 06:35WN 2403	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → SBA 10:40WN 2336	5h 20m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	5h 00m	87%	80%
American Details →	LAX 06:34 → PHX 08:05AA 2027	1h 59m Phoenix	PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:40AA 4993 · flown by SkyWest	5h 06m	94%	77%
Alaska Details →	LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315	1h 01m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon	5h 37m	85%	76%
United Details →	LAX 13:25 → SFO 14:53UA 372	3h 23m San Francisco	SFO 18:16 → SBA 19:43UA 5962 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LAX 16:20 → DEN 19:40WN 278	1h 15m Denver	DEN 20:55 → SBA 22:30WN 3842	6h 10m	68%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON