Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 325 at 11:43 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 325 LAX 11:43 → SEA 14:36 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 1368 LAX 19:09 → SEA 21:58 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 325 United Flight history →	LAX 11:43	SEA 14:36	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 2980 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SEA 10:00	15%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 1365 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 06:00	SEA 08:47	16%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1714 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:45	SEA 12:30	16%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1045 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:09	SEA 14:55	18%	5%	0.7%	89%
AS 748 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SEA 09:49	20%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2606 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:00	SEA 16:40	20%	5%	0.7%	84%
DL 2616 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:15	SEA 00:03	22%	6%	0.7%	77%
AS 798 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:00	SEA 12:48	25%	4%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
F9 1177 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 15:04	SEA 17:51	26%	9%	1.6%	82%
AA 6324 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:50	SEA 13:48	26%	7%	0.6%	80%
DL 1551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:17	SEA 22:05	26%	5%	0.7%	81%
DL 2640 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:45	SEA 20:27	27%	6%	0.7%	83%
UA 684 United Flight history →	LAX 19:06	SEA 21:59	27%	7%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 482 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 09:00	SEA 11:52	28%	4%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
AS 1305 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 12:47	SEA 15:33	29%	5%	0.7%	76%
AS 585 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 13:59	SEA 16:45	29%	6%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
AS 614 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 20:09	SEA 22:58	31%	7%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
AS 1375 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 16:25	SEA 19:11	33%	7%	0.7%	68%
AA 4920 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:48	SEA 21:45	33%	9%	0.7%	67%
AS 1301 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:09	SEA 20:56	34%	7%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
AS 1368 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 19:09	SEA 21:58	38%	7%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON