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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 38 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2647 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–47%.

Safest bet that day UA 2647 LAX 06:00 → SFO 07:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2427 LAX 10:00 → SFO 11:20 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2647 United Flight history → LAX 06:00 SFO 07:35 4% 2% 0.6% 94%
WN 2426 Southwest Flight history → LAX 06:55 SFO 08:15 16% 5% 0.6% 97%worse than usual
UA 233 United Flight history → LAX 17:10 SFO 18:38 18% 10% 0.5% 83%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:21 20% 7% 0.9% 94%worse than usual
AA 6336 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:37 20% 8% 0.8% 82%
UA 2019 United Flight history → LAX 16:14 SFO 17:42 23% 13% 0.5% 68%
UA 2056 United Flight history → LAX 21:34 SFO 23:02 24% 10% 0.5% 61%
UA 372 United Flight history → LAX 13:25 SFO 14:53 24% 9% 0.6% 65%
AA 6510 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 22:32 SFO 23:59 26% 10% 0.8% 81%
UA 1791 United Flight history → LAX 10:55 SFO 12:30 27% 10% 0.6% 58%
DL 2725 Delta Flight history → LAX 12:00 SFO 13:26 27% 11% 0.9% 69%
UA 1372 United Flight history → LAX 07:30 SFO 09:06 28% 8% 0.6% 49%
AS 3067 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 22:27 SFO 23:57 29% 11% 0.9% 36%
DL 1559 Delta Flight history → LAX 17:35 SFO 18:52 29% 10% 0.9% 69%
AA 2567 American Flight history → LAX 17:52 SFO 19:21 29% 15% 0.6% 57%
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 20:38 SFO 22:14 29% 14% 0.8% 63%
AA 6188 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 11:34 SFO 13:08 29% 15% 0.8% 39%
UA 2681 United Flight history → LAX 18:45 SFO 20:10 30% 14% 0.5% 38%
AS 1603 Alaska Flight history → LAX 07:15 SFO 08:39 31% 8% 0.7% 65%
UA 520 United Flight history → LAX 09:10 SFO 10:45 31% 11% 0.6% 65%
UA 1195 United Flight history → LAX 20:10 SFO 21:38 32% 13% 0.5% 28%
AA 6221 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 14:00 SFO 15:34 32% 17% 0.8% 39%
DL 2986 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:00 SFO 23:19 34% 10% 0.9% 60%
AS 1610 Alaska Flight history → LAX 16:25 SFO 17:47 35% 13% 0.7% 54%
AS 1522 Alaska Flight history → LAX 13:28 SFO 14:51 36% 10% 0.7% 48%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → LAX 14:25 SFO 15:44 37% 13% 0.9% 50%
AA 6330 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 09:22 SFO 10:56 39% 17% 0.8% 37%
WN 3161 Southwest Flight history → LAX 17:20 SFO 18:40 41% 15% 0.5% 19%
F9 4593 Frontier Flight history → LAX 19:07 SFO 20:45 41% 23% 2.1% 49%
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:20 SFO 10:42 42% 11% 0.9% 52%
WN 4950 Southwest Flight history → LAX 12:25 SFO 13:40 42% 14% 0.6% 22%
AS 687 Alaska Flight history → LAX 08:20 SFO 09:45 45% 13% 0.7% 7%
AS 1601 Alaska Flight history → LAX 19:34 SFO 20:57 46% 17% 0.6% 15%
DL 2197 Delta Flight history → LAX 20:30 SFO 21:49 46% 13% 0.9% 45%
WN 2429 Southwest Flight history → LAX 21:05 SFO 22:25 47% 18% 0.5% 9%
WN 3168 Southwest Flight history → LAX 14:10 SFO 15:25 48% 16% 0.6% 12%
AS 1607 Alaska Flight history → LAX 10:03 SFO 11:27 48% 18% 0.7% 33%
WN 2427 Southwest Flight history → LAX 10:00 SFO 11:20 51% 20% 0.6% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON