Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2430 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2430 LAX 06:40 → SJC 07:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2435 LAX 19:55 → SJC 21:15 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2430 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 06:40	SJC 07:50	3%	1%	0.7%	94%
DL 4451 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:55	SJC 09:10	10%	4%	0.6%	100%
WN 2431 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 09:00	SJC 10:15	11%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 3822 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:32	SJC 15:46	12%	4%	0.5%	95%
DL 2965 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:22	SJC 10:38	12%	3%	1.1%	92%
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:57	SJC 14:12	13%	5%	0.5%	90%
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:17	SJC 19:32	15%	5%	0.6%	88%
DL 1438 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:00	SJC 17:12	18%	5%	1.1%	87%
WN 2432 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 11:15	SJC 12:25	18%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 3073 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:59	SJC 22:13	25%	6%	1.2%	82%
WN 2433 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 13:10	SJC 14:25	26%	7%	0.7%	77%
WN 955 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 15:15	SJC 16:25	27%	6%	0.7%	62%
WN 2434 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:00	SJC 18:15	31%	9%	0.6%	65%
F9 2457 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 18:11	SJC 19:28	31%	13%	2.9%	81%worse than usual
WN 2435 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 19:55	SJC 21:15	31%	10%	0.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON