Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4894 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4894 LAX 06:20 → SMF 07:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 4921 LAX 21:05 → SMF 22:30 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4894 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 06:20	SMF 07:45	4%	1%	0.5%	97%
AA 6348 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:59	SMF 09:35	12%	4%	0.5%	88%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:05	SMF 10:37	13%	5%	0.5%	95%
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:10	SMF 08:41	13%	4%	0.5%	74%
WN 4454 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 09:30	SMF 10:55	13%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 5858 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:30	SMF 18:06	14%	6%	0.5%	92%
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:38	SMF 18:11	14%	6%	0.5%	88%
UA 5372 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:20	SMF 10:56	14%	5%	0.5%	89%
AA 6346 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:18	SMF 18:51	15%	6%	0.6%	89%
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:41	SMF 20:10	16%	6%	0.6%	88%
AA 4908 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:44	SMF 23:20	16%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 3812 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:05	SMF 13:32	16%	6%	0.5%	89%
DL 4083 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:35	SMF 23:07	17%	5%	0.6%	76%
WN 265 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 12:15	SMF 13:35	28%	5%	0.5%	88%worse than usual
WN 2008 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:00	SMF 15:25	32%	7%	0.5%	85%worse than usual
F9 3315 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 16:05	SMF 17:38	33%	13%	1.0%	82%worse than usual
WN 4500 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:45	SMF 19:10	38%	10%	0.5%	62%
WN 4921 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:05	SMF 22:30	38%	12%	0.5%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON