Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3114 LAX 09:00 → STS 10:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 3076 LAX 14:09 → STS 15:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3114 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:00	STS 10:45	19%	6%	2.1%	94%worse than usual
AS 3476 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:00	STS 18:43	22%	8%	2.0%	91%worse than usual
AS 3076 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:09	STS 15:55	22%	9%	2.0%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON