Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5980 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:02	SUN 13:16	12%	5%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
UA 6043 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:45	SUN 22:01	13%	4%	0.6%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → SUN 12:25DL 3973 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	99%	89%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	3h 22m Denver	DEN 11:44 → SUN 13:47UA 5554 · flown by SkyWest	7h 47m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	4h 02m	87%	80%
United Details →	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	3h 09m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	98%	78%
United Details →	LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019	1h 13m San Francisco	SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest	4h 37m	86%	68%
Alaska Details →	LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798	3h 37m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	8h 01m	98%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305	52m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	5h 14m	60%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON