Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 749 LAX 10:11 → TPA 18:05 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2441 LAX 16:10 → TPA 23:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 749 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:11	TPA 18:05	24%	5%	17.2%	80%
DL 910 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:34	TPA 06:16	24%	5%	4.7%	79%
WN 2441 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 16:10	TPA 23:55	33%	12%	9.9%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 13m Houston	IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353	6h 54m	96%	72%
United Details →	LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416	54m Houston	IAH 14:34 → TPA 17:55UA 2812	6h 45m	87%	57%
American Details →	LAX 01:10 → DFW 06:20AA 1445	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → TPA 10:41AA 2814	6h 31m	77%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON