tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:39, is the safest bet: 43% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6366 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 09:36 TUL 14:51 13% 5% 0.5% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010 1h 42m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → TUL 20:40DL 3825 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:13 → ORD 06:32UA 729 2h 13m Chicago ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest 8h 50m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971 1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:10 → TUL 08:22AA 3426 · flown by Envoy 5h 51m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 14m Houston IAH 07:26 → TUL 09:09UA 5325 · flown by SkyWest 6h 18m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:40 → ORD 07:06AA 2919 2h 34m Chicago ORD 09:40 → TUL 11:44AA 4135 · flown by Envoy 9h 04m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 13:10 → IAH 18:39UA 1591 3h 03m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 3h 11m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:53 → DFW 19:14AA 2041 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:08 → TUL 21:15AA 1514 5h 22m 72% 49%
AmericanDetails → LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032 54m Phoenix PHX 19:04 → TUL 23:30AA 4037 · flown by Envoy 4h 51m 59% 43%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 18:20 → LAS 19:35WN 2404 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 20:35 → TUL 01:15 +1WN 4339 4h 55m 57% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON