Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3766 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 3766 LAX 09:30 → TUS 11:08 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 951 LAX 16:50 → TUS 18:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3766 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:30	TUS 11:08	19%	6%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
DL 3776 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:10	TUS 15:50	20%	9%	0.6%	81%
AA 6372 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 15:39	TUS 17:12	20%	9%	0.6%	83%
DL 3846 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:21	TUS 20:59	21%	10%	0.6%	82%
AA 6315 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:25	TUS 21:02	22%	10%	0.6%	76%
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:28	TUS 12:03	23%	8%	0.6%	85%
WN 1599 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 13:05	TUS 14:35	31%	7%	0.6%	38%
WN 951 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 16:50	TUS 18:20	33%	12%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON