Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6381 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:36	XNA 15:06	15%	7%	0.6%	93%
AA 6187 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:49	XNA 23:17	15%	6%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → XNA 11:08DL 3536 · flown by SkyWest	8h 38m	100%	90%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → XNA 10:24AA 3838 · flown by Envoy	7h 53m	100%	90%
United Details →	LAX 00:13 → ORD 06:32UA 729	2h 08m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → XNA 10:39UA 5407 · flown by SkyWest	8h 26m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → XNA 21:03DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	7h 22m	98%	86%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 28m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	5h 47m	100%	85%
United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	3h 23m Houston	IAH 09:35 → XNA 11:12UA 4297 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 21m	100%	85%
American Details →	LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	99%	85%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	3h 20m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 30m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	50m Atlanta	ATL 22:49 → XNA 23:50DL 4441 · flown by SkyWest	7h 35m	69%	58%
American Details →	LAX 11:40 → ORD 18:12AA 1050	48m Chicago	ORD 19:00 → XNA 21:00AA 4105 · flown by Envoy	7h 20m	68%	57%
United Details →	LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487	50m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → XNA 23:31UA 5767 · flown by SkyWest	7h 05m	65%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON