Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4628 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 4628 LGA 06:09 → ATL 08:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4347 LGA 22:00 → ATL 00:27 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4628 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:09	ATL 08:43	5%	2%	0.9%	95%
DL 550 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	ATL 08:23	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 342 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:59	ATL 09:20	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 364 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:00	ATL 10:29	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 4606 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:03	ATL 11:40	9%	2%	0.8%	80%
DL 992 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:00	ATL 11:32	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 989 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:00	ATL 12:28	11%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 990 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:59	ATL 14:31	12%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 993 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:59	ATL 13:20	12%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 4605 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:51	ATL 14:28	14%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 4624 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:58	ATL 16:33	14%	5%	0.8%	68%
DL 994 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:00	ATL 15:32	15%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 988 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:59	ATL 16:30	15%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 974 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	ATL 18:02	16%	6%	0.7%	81%
F9 3287 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 06:29	ATL 09:17	16%	7%	1.7%	63%
DL 969 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ATL 19:07	19%	7%	0.7%	70%
DL 968 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ATL 20:24	19%	8%	0.7%	76%
AA 4599 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:00	ATL 23:38	20%	6%	1.4%	64%
DL 975 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	ATL 23:43	22%	8%	0.9%	68%
DL 964 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:00	ATL 21:20	23%	8%	0.8%	71%
DL 970 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:59	ATL 22:24	24%	8%	0.8%	66%
F9 3453 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 18:53	ATL 21:45	47%	21%	1.7%	46%
F9 4347 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 22:00	ATL 00:27	48%	20%	2.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON